(Originally ran in Infoworld, fall of 1993) I am sick and tired about hearing about the coming convergence of consumer electronics, computers, and communications. And most of the articles that I've read about this megatrend are focussed in the wrong area.
You get the impression that soon every home will have a PC inside its TV, or is it the other way around? And actually that confusion is part of the problem: the convergence will happen, no doubt. But its first and probably only manifestation for a long time to come will be in the area of entertainment, not in computing.
I want to make my position clear: I am not some entertainment junkie with the latest equipment. Sure, I have a PC at home (a Mac IIsi, if you must know), but that happened relatively recently. My stereo is at least five years old, my TV older, I don't get cable nor own a cell phone. And the only CD players I own have SCSI connectors in back. Indeed, you could call me an electronic entertainment luddite.
Yet I think that computers/communications/call-it-what-you-will have already changed the face of mass-market entertainment, and will continue to have profound effects here. But the result is not multimedia PCs or live video coming through your super VGA: it will be better and more interesting entertainment. The interface is not the keyboard or Windows: it is a telephone-style numberic touchpad, Nintendo, and our TVs.
Since this is a product-oriented paper, let me explain by way of talking about three products: "Just Grandma and Me," "Tommy," and "Jurassic Park." I am talking about the computer software from Broderbund, the current Broadway show and movie, respectively. All three of these entertainment vehicles appeared first elsewhere: Grandma and Jurassic as books, Tommy as a rock opera (and subsequent movie flop). This demonstrates Strom's first law of convergence: the source materials already exist for this new generation of cyber-entertainment. The rest of the decade's successes will come from leveraging this body of (most printed and recorded) work.
Second, all three vehicles show that current delivery mechanisms are just fine for getting these products sold. We aren't talking about creating virtual reality-style games or interactive telephones with built-in store-and-forward fax here. Sure, those toys will eventually happen (just ask AT&T: they certainly know how to sell vaporware in their current "you will" radio and TV ads). But the real win will be how to make entertainment products like movies, TV, and even computer software more entertaining and interesting, by way of incorporating solid technological advances that were only possible a short time ago. None of the three vehicles could have happened with the technology available three years ago. So my second law: technology will push existing entertainment vehicles, not the other way around.
Take "Grandma:" for those of you that have kids under the age of six, run, don't walk, to your nearest software store and buy it. It will cost you much less than $100, probably the best value of any recent software purchase of mine. If you don't have a CD player, buy one now (you'll need it to run Grandma: it has hundreds of megabytes of code that won't fit on your average hard disk). The program is exciting: it was the first to capture the attention of my four-year old for more than five minutes, and hold it for close to an hour. She still goes back to the program close to six months later, too: as they say in Hollywood, this baby's got legs.
What makes it so special? Easy: it combines storytelling (the Mercer Mayer "little critter" kiddie adventure series that most of us have read all too many times), interactive entertainment (kids love to explore each screen and click on the hot spots that initiate various animation sequences), and even has a bit of learning thrown in (but not too much: you can click on individual words in the text and hear them spoken to you).
Broderbund's authoring system developed for Grandma is being used to create several other titles in this "Living Books" series. They are on to something.
How about Tommy? Those of us old enough to remember who the Who are will be especially excited: this is the first Broadway show for the 90s, and a good example of how convergence of computing and entertainment will work. The show is a techno-spectacle, and makes Fosse musicals with all their careful lighting and dry-ice smoke special effects look old-fashioned.
Some examples: this is the first Broadway show I know of to actually include a character who is sending live wireless video images from the stage to a series of monitors during the actual play. It makes extensive use of computer-controlled gadgetry including lighting, fire effects, and video composites. But you are not watching hardware: you are being tremendously entertained.
Tommy and Grandma demonstrate my third law: the best human interface for these products will still be mostly passive viewing and hearing what is placed in front of you. You can operate Grandma without a keyboard, and even forgo the mouse if you just want to hear and see the story without playing with the hot spots. No keyboard is required to appreciate a Broadway show.
The same can be said of Jurassic Park. I read and enjoyed the book, and enjoyed the movie, although for different reasons. Part of it was trying to figure out which scenes were shot with the live-action puppetry and which were computer images. I couldn't tell the difference. Part of it was hearing one of the characters scream with delight upon finding a Unix computer that she could operate with confidence. And part of it was the realization that all the hardware didn't get in the way of enjoying the show.
Corporate networks will be safe from Nintendo-attached nodes for a long time, rest easy. But let's call a spade a spade: the coming covergence will be less animated spreadsheets and more animated entertainment. Time Warner, Spielberg, and others will benefit. AT&T and Microsoft won't.
Copyright 1993 Infoworld Publishing Co.