Internet Trends and Futures

Summary

1. Overall trends
2. Rise of the Intranet
3. Popular misconceptions
4. Key technologies to watch in 1996

Overall trends

1. Newbies still account for 50 % of population (Stef)
2. Soft benefits, hard costs for connecting businesses
3. Hard benefits, soft costs for connecting schools
4. Net topology becoming less reliable and more confusing
5. Routers and WAN issues biggest overall obstacle
6. IP comes included now on every new desktop OS
   • Win95
   • System 7.5+
   • NT 3.5.1
   • OS/2 Warp+
7. Intranet popular for corporate client/server applications
8. IDC predictions: new web businesses, access vs. content, MSN=Prodigy96

Web browser is the GUI for non-Web applications

• Calendaring (On Time )
• Email (cc:Mail)
• Workflow
• Printers (PhaserShare)
• Routers (Tribe's WebManage)
• 3270 software!(SimWare Salvo)

The Rise of the Intranet

• Uses TCP/IP for both WAN and LAN
• Uses HTML, SMTP etc. for client/server communications
• Owned by the corporation, not accessible from the Internet
• Managed by IS with tools, attitudes and techniques as VTAM

Managing the transition from VTAM to the Intranet

• What is the present level of open systems expertise?
• How will IP be deployed throughout the enterprise?
• Can IS take the technology lead on managing web services for the corporation?
• Can IS set an example for maintaining web-based content and deploy appropriate training resources?

Successful applications examples

• Federal Express tracking application
• My own rolodex
• Zip Code lookup

Popular misconceptions about the Internet

1. IP on the desktop is easy(ier)
   • Win95 makes it easier, as long as you use 100% MS products!
   • DHCP support growing, but not universal
   • Management tools still designed for routers, not desktops
   • Mac IP and Open Transport bugs galore
   • Win 3.1 and IP are like oil and water
   • NetWare and IP are like mayo and rye bread
   • Winsock incompatibilities full employment for consultants

2. Everyone surfing from home these days
   • Which Internet Service Provider?
   • What kind of connection (dial, ISDN, etc.)?
   • Switching between home and work connections
   • Installing Internet apps non-trivial
   • Finding stuff on the web takes practice
   • Finding stuff not on the web takes a MS in CS

3. The web and the Internet are synonyms
   • Majority of web users are still VT100-based
   • Email is most popular application!
   • 2 terabytes of Usenet can't come out of thin air!
   • Millions of CIS and AOL users don't know where the web is

4. The Internet isn't secure enough for commerce
   • Ease of shopping and technical reasons are the real obstacle
   • Building commerce servers requires 15 different pieces of software
   • Corporations aren't yet connected to the net, outside of email

5. The battle of the browser is over
   • Nope: never really started
   • Real market for the web is in servers

6. NT is killing Unix in the server marketplace
   • NT products still not ready for serious Internet suites
   • NT remote admin tools bare-bones at best
   • NT stable but incomplete
   • Too many choices for Web servers on NT is confounding
   • Too few ISPs offer NT expertise -- yet

7. Java will drive leading-edge Web applications
   • Java is far from complete
   • Java requires lots of programming skill still
   • Would you trust your hard disk to anyone's wayward agents?
   • Most web browsers don't yet work with Java
   • Most Java applets are visual masturbation, not much more
   • Most web servers don't do much with Java
   • Best example of Java to date: c|net's interactive shopping service

Key technologies to watch in 1996

1. Discussion/conferencing groupware

   Attachmate Open Mind, Netscape/Collabra Share,

2. Web server creation tools

   O'Reilly Website, Compuserve Internet Office Web Server

3. Web server management tools

   Vermeer Front Page, Netscape Server, Attachmate Internet Access Server

4. Network management tools

   Peregrine Open Administrator

5. Web content search tools

   Verity, Personal Library Software PL/Web, WAIS Inc. WAISGate

6. IP on-ramp products

   Frontier Cybersearch, Netmanage Chameleon, Wollongong Emissary, FTP Software Explore, Attachmate's Irma for Internet

7. Turnkey Internet server products

   Sun Netra, Performance Technologies Instant Internet

8. Interactive applets and browser add-ons

   Java, Shockwave, Aretha (Winer)